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Forecasting and prediction

Methods and applications for forecasting outcomes and future events.

2,520 stories · 60 in 30 days · Updated Sep 28, 2026

The pace of conversation

Posts per month

2020-01: 71 posts2020-02: 29 posts2020-03: 26 posts2020-04: 43 posts2020-05: 49 posts2020-06: 56 posts2020-07: 34 posts2020-08: 27 posts2020-09: 25 posts2020-10: 26 posts2020-11: 58 posts2020-12: 29 posts2021-01: 31 posts2021-02: 17 posts2021-03: 14 posts2021-04: 26 posts2021-05: 15 posts2021-06: 18 posts2021-07: 26 posts2021-08: 20 posts2021-09: 25 posts2021-10: 23 posts2021-11: 21 posts2021-12: 30 posts2022-01: 46 posts2022-02: 29 posts2022-03: 27 posts2022-04: 26 posts2022-05: 18 posts2022-06: 24 posts2022-07: 34 posts2022-08: 16 posts2022-09: 18 posts2022-10: 31 posts2022-11: 24 posts2022-12: 48 posts2023-01: 38 posts2023-02: 29 posts2023-03: 26 posts2023-04: 15 posts2023-05: 24 posts2023-06: 21 posts2023-07: 30 posts2023-08: 22 posts2023-09: 21 posts2023-10: 24 posts2023-11: 20 posts2023-12: 44 posts2024-01: 71 posts2024-02: 29 posts2024-03: 34 posts2024-04: 19 posts2024-05: 28 posts2024-06: 16 posts2024-07: 21 posts2024-08: 19 posts2024-09: 18 posts2024-10: 22 posts2024-11: 36 posts2024-12: 29 posts2025-01: 46 posts2025-02: 23 posts2025-03: 25 posts2025-04: 14 posts2025-05: 23 posts2025-06: 25 posts2025-07: 16 posts2025-08: 29 posts2025-09: 18 posts2025-10: 23 posts2025-11: 34 posts2025-12: 45 posts2026-01: 63 posts2026-02: 36 posts2026-03: 49 posts2026-04: 37 posts2026-05: 47 posts2026-06: 46 posts2026-07: 65 posts2026-08: 68 posts2026-09: 52 posts
2020-012026-09

Posts per month · first and latest months may be partial.

01 / EXPLORE THROUGH TIME

Timeline

Start with the latest. Scroll back through time, or zoom in for more.

Year by yearUp to 5 stories per year
2026463 stories
Compression is prediction↗ ngrok.com · HN · 301 comments · 674 points · Aug 11, 2026
Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets↗ npr.org · HN · 245 comments · 785 points · May 19, 2026
We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do↗ derekthompson.org · HN · 697 comments · 908 points · Mar 26, 2026
Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction↗ entropicthoughts.com · HN · 373 comments · 457 points · Jan 20, 2026
Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling↗ theatlantic.com · HN · 498 comments · 515 points · Jan 18, 2026
2025321 stories
Everything is correlated (2014–23)↗ gwern.net · HN · 127 comments · 264 points · Aug 22, 2025
The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return↗ ericneyman.wordpress.com · HN · 612 comments · 326 points · May 28, 2025
What are people doing? Live-ish estimates based on global population dynamics↗ humans.maxcomperatore.com · HN · 103 comments · 284 points · May 20, 2025
Zed now predicts your next edit with Zeta, our new open model↗ zed.dev · HN · 290 comments · 516 points · Feb 14, 2025
Predictions Scorecard, 2025 January 01↗ rodneybrooks.com · HN · 185 comments · 243 points · Jan 10, 2025
2024342 stories
Launch HN: Silurian (YC S24) – Simulate the Earth↗ news.ycombinator.com · HN · 141 comments · 338 points · Sep 16, 2024
XLSTMTime: Long-Term Time Series Forecasting with xLSTM↗ arxiv.org · HN · 53 comments · 231 points · Jul 16, 2024
Diffusion Forcing: Next-Token Prediction Meets Full-Sequence Diffusion↗ boyuan.space · HN · 13 comments · 214 points · Jul 04, 2024
TimesFM: Time Series Foundation Model for time-series forecasting↗ github.com · HN · 118 comments · 317 points · May 08, 2024
A ragtag band of internet friends became the best at forecasting world events↗ vox.com · HN · 132 comments · 229 points · Mar 12, 2024
2023314 stories
The forecasting fallacy (2020)↗ alexmurrell.co.uk · HN · 67 comments · 91 points · Dec 31, 2023
Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?↗ news.ycombinator.com · HN · 137 comments · 89 points · Dec 26, 2023
Bill Gates 2024 Predictions↗ gatesnotes.com · HN · 3 comments · 25 points · Dec 23, 2023
Using sequences of life-events to predict human lives↗ arxiv.org · HN · 51 comments · 98 points · Dec 23, 2023
Facebook Prophet: library for generating forecasts from any time series data↗ github.com · HN · 12 comments · 26 points · Sep 26, 2023
2022341 stories
Betting on things that never change (2017)↗ collabfund.com · HN · 114 comments · 337 points · Nov 21, 2022
Futurist prediction methods and accuracy↗ danluu.com · HN · 94 comments · 151 points · Sep 13, 2022
Exponential Smoothing: faster and more accurate than NeuralProphet↗ github.com · HN · 42 comments · 161 points · Aug 17, 2022
ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices↗ statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu · HN · 217 comments · 251 points · Jul 21, 2022
Predicting Best Picture winners using coughs and sneezes↗ journal-doi.org · HN · 148 comments · 289 points · Mar 22, 2022
2021266 stories
How to replace estimations and guesses with a Monte Carlo simulation↗ lucasfcosta.com · HN · 153 comments · 396 points · Oct 06, 2021
Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results (2020)↗ locusmag.com · HN · 270 comments · 415 points · Jul 31, 2021
MIT Predicted Society Will Collapse in 2040. Research Shows We're on Schedule↗ flip.it · HN · 292 comments · 215 points · Jul 14, 2021
Tales from Prediction Markets↗ misinfounderload.substack.com · HN · 56 comments · 223 points · Apr 04, 2021
Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election↗ vitalik.ca · HN · 183 comments · 209 points · Feb 19, 2021
2020473 stories
Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?↗ news.ycombinator.com · HN · 430 comments · 262 points · Dec 31, 2020
Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)↗ kaggle.com · HN · 208 comments · 357 points · Nov 24, 2020
Forecasting s-curves is hard↗ constancecrozier.com · HN · 150 comments · 266 points · Apr 19, 2020
A Failure, but Not of Prediction↗ slatestarcodex.com · HN · 177 comments · 223 points · Apr 15, 2020
Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?↗ news.ycombinator.com · HN · 1096 comments · 815 points · Jan 02, 2020
Scroll through time ↕

02 / CATCH UP

The conversation now

Popular stories, with attention fading over roughly two weeks.

Compression is prediction↗ ngrok.com · HN · 301 comments · 674 points · Aug 11, 2026
Predictive intelligence to anticipate anything.↗ prior.chat · HN · 32 comments · 22 points · Sep 13, 2026
The original URL for this prediction will no longer be available in 11 years (2011)↗ longbets.org · HN · 101 comments · 210 points · Aug 09, 2026
Show HN: Exploring the intersection of prediction markets and social media↗ thevidmarket.com · HN · 2 comments · 16 points · Sep 14, 2026
Show HN: Jev predicting your life choices↗ quiz.seek.ws · HN · 12 comments · 7 points · Sep 26, 2026

03 / GO DEEPER

Follow your curiosity

Find a particular story, revisit a year, or see what resonated.

Highest rated · the last 30 days

Predictive intelligence to anticipate anything.↗ prior.chat · HN · 32 comments · 22 points · Sep 13, 2026
Show HN: Exploring the intersection of prediction markets and social media↗ thevidmarket.com · HN · 2 comments · 16 points · Sep 14, 2026
Building Without Predicting↗ sive.rs · HN · 4 comments · 14 points · Sep 01, 2026
How Is Compression Prediction?↗ lukefleed.xyz · HN · 1 comments · 8 points · Sep 14, 2026
Show HN: My startup-idea scanner scored 500 ideas; the best got 6.3/10↗ 1mil.app · HN · 4 comments · 8 points · Aug 30, 2026
Show HN: Jev predicting your life choices↗ quiz.seek.ws · HN · 12 comments · 7 points · Sep 26, 2026
Building Indices from Prediction Markets↗ lookbacklabs.com · HN · 0 comments · 7 points · Aug 30, 2026
A Collection of Ed Zitron Predictions↗ reddit.com · HN · 0 comments · 6 points · Aug 29, 2026
Show HN: Where in Europe to Survive the Polycrisis↗ om-intelligence.ch · HN · 5 comments · 5 points · Sep 26, 2026
Prediction markets are becoming a national security threat↗ thebulletin.org · HN · 0 comments · 5 points · Sep 18, 2026

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